French Open Draw Analysis: The Journey of Top Seeds and the Opportunities & Challenges for China's Contingent

As the official singles main draw for the 2025 French Open has been unveiled, tennis fans are once again turning their attention to the red clay courts of Roland Garros. This Grand Slam event, renowned for its unique allure, features a highly intriguing draw this year, with top-seeded players facing distinct challenges on their paths to advancement—and Chinese athletes are already stepping onto the court, chasing their dreams.

Women's Singles Draw

As the No. 1 seed, Sabalenka will face Rahimova in the first round. Judging from their head-to-head records, Sabalenka clearly holds the upper hand—and provided she performs at her usual level, advancing to the second round should be no problem. Her opponent in the second round will likely emerge from either a qualifier or Teichmann, neither of whom poses an insurmountable challenge. However, after two rounds, several strong contenders could already be waiting in the wings, including players like Anisimova, Tauson, and Collins—each with the potential to make a serious impact. A quarterfinal showdown against Zheng Qinwen remains a distinct possibility.

China's Zheng Qinwen, seeded No. 8, faces a challenging draw in her tournament debut. In the first round, she’ll take on former French Open finalist Pavlyuchenkova, a formidable Russian player who will undoubtedly put significant pressure on Zheng as she looks for an opening-round victory. The second round could see her up against either the aggressive Ierl or Arango, while a tough third-round matchup against the red-hot Stephens seems highly likely.

If she manages to advance through the first three rounds, her opponent in the fourth round will be no pushover—likely either Schneider or Samsonova. The quarterfinals, however, are drawing the most attention: if Zheng Qinwen and Sabalenka both make it through smoothly, they’ll once again deliver a thrilling showdown. The two have already faced each other several times this season, with Zheng generally holding the disadvantage. Yet at the Rome tournament, Zheng delivered a dominant performance, sweeping Sabalenka—and that victory has undoubtedly boosted her confidence immensely.

Second-seeded Gauff will face Gaekyde in the first round, with her second-round opponent yet to be determined—likely between Paquie and a qualifier. Both of her first two opponents are relatively low-ranked, allowing Gauff to advance comfortably while using the matches as valuable practice to fine-tune her form. However, she could find herself in a thrilling "U.S. showdown" against No. 7 seed Keys in the quarterfinals.

The No. 5 seed Swiatek has arguably drawn the toughest possible draw: While her first-round match against Sramkova won’t be too challenging, she could face either Wang Xinyu or Raducanu in the second round. By the third round, she’s likely to take on Kostyuk, while her potential fourth-round opponent might be the red-hot Rybakina, the strong Ostapenko, or the seasoned Bencic. And if she makes it to the quarterfinals, she could even clash with either Paolini or Svitolina—a matchup that would truly feel like part of the "group of death."

But Swiatek, known as the "Queen of Clay," boasts a deep-rooted expertise and vast experience on red clay courts. Despite the numerous challenges she faces, she still has the potential to rise above the competition thanks to her exceptional skills and unwavering mental strength.

Men's Singles Draw

Top seed Sinner will face French player Lendeknese in the first round—given Sinner's impressive form, securing his opening victory should be no problem. In the second round, he’ll take on the winner between Gasquet and Atmane, putting him on a strong path to advance. His third-round opponent could emerge from the matchup between Leheka and Fokina, both of whom are renowned clay-court specialists and will undoubtedly pose a tough challenge for Sinner. In the fourth round, he might encounter either Fucsovics or Rublev, while his quarterfinal clash is expected to be against Draper.

As the defending champion, No. 2 seed Alcaraz will face former US Open champion Kei Nishikori in the first round. Nishikori has been in impressive form since returning from injury, so Alcaraz can’t afford to take this match lightly. In the second round, he’ll face the winner between Mauroly and Nardi, while his potential third-round opponent could be either Perkari or Berghs.

In the quarterfinals, they could face players like Ruud, Khachanov, or Paul. Most of the seeded players in this bracket were born in the 1990s. While Alcaraz remains undefeated against some of these opponents, every match will still be a tough challenge. To successfully defend his title, he’ll need to give his all and fight for victory round by round.

Sixth-seeded Djokovic will face American player McDonald in the first round, while his second-round opponent will emerge from the match between Moutet and a qualifier. With relatively low pressure to advance through the first two rounds, Djokovic is likely to take on Arnaldi in the third round—and if he manages to progress smoothly into the fourth round, he could potentially face Sinner.

Novak Djokovic's main competitors in this bracket are mostly players born in the 1990s, including names like Zverev, Sinner, Dimitrov, and Medvedev. With his wealth of major-tournament experience and consistent performance, Djokovic is well-positioned to advance steadily through the bracket and mount a strong challenge for the title.

China's athletes' situation

In the women's singles, aside from Zheng Qinwen, Wang Xinyu will face former US Open champion Raducanu in the first round. While Raducanu is a formidable opponent, Wang Xinyu still has a chance to pull off an upset with a standout performance. Meanwhile, Yuan Yue will take on No. 4 seed Paolini, who just clinched victory at the Rome tournament—Paolini is in top form, presenting Yuan Yue with a massive challenge.

In the men's singles, Bu Yunchaokete will face a qualifier in the first round—a perfect opportunity for him to secure his first-ever Grand Slam main-draw victory. If he advances, his second-round match will be against the winner of the clash between Shapovalov and Martinez. And should he make it all the way to the third round, he might even get the chance to take on the legendary Novak Djokovic—making this not just a daunting challenge, but also an extraordinary opportunity for the young player, Bu Yunchaokete.

Notably, after the first round of singles qualifying at this year's French Open, only Zhang Shuai and Wang Xiyu advanced to the second round in the women's draw, while men's standout Wu Yibing fell short, losing to former US Open champion Cilic in his opening match. Meanwhile, Wang Xiyu managed to secure a spot in the decisive round of qualifying, leaving her just one win away from earning a main-draw berth—though Zhang Shuai was forced to bow out in the second round after suffering a heartbreaking comeback defeat.